Barf

[youtube https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E32bl8pr4X4&w=560&h=315] Some hands will have you excited, loving life, and hopeful about the future. Others will make you sick, nauseous, and in the worst case, barf.  Today I’ll walk you through a Pre-Flop hand where I get unlucky. I have every right to feel sick, but will keep my head up high and move on.  Image110_1 I’m seated in The Cutoff+1 (TC+1) holding a premium hand, As-Ad, with $320,000. With the blinds at $2000/$4000 I have 80 big blinds, a large stack according to The Poker Model. My goal with A-A is to get all of my chips in at the Pre-Flop stage. You should have this goal anytime you have A-A regardless of the stage of the tournament you are in.  Image110_2 To my delight, the player seated Under The Gun (UTG) moves all-in for $80,000, or 20 big blinds. I’m happy because A-A will be dominating every hand (except A-A) that he could be holding. This means that I’m likely to win a big pot after I call. The action then moves to Under The Gun+2 (UTG+2), who moves all-in for $300,000, or 75 big blinds. This is good for me as well because I’m still favored to win a three way pot with A-A. If I get unlucky and lose to the player seated Under The Gun (UTG), I’ll still make money on the hand by beating the player seated Under The Gun+2 (UTG+2). Image110_3 I move all-in, feeling good about my position. I expect all of the other players in the hand to fold where I can flip over A-A and be in a good spot to win a big pot. But then The Big Blind (TBB) calls my all-in. After his call my odds of winning decrease, but I am still the favorite. Image110_4 We flip our cards over and wait for the runout. Under The Gun (UTG) shows 9-9, a hand that we’d expect to see after a 20 big blinds all in. Under The Gun+2 (UTG+2) shows Q-Q, a hand that would isolate 9-9 in the manner that he did. After the initial all-ins I was in great position with A-A: 80% to beat the largest stack and 66% to scoop the whole pot.  The Big Blind (TBB) shows Kd-Q. This is a very bad call with about 10% odds of winning. He essentially moves his money in knowing that he is behind in the hand, hoping to get lucky. I’m still the heavy favorite, however.  Image110_5 You guessed it. Two kings come on the board and The Big Blind wins a pot of over $1,000,000. He knocks out three players in the process, including me. No matter how disciplined, this one stings a bit, it might even make you sick. But as we know, this is only one hand in the big scheme of things, one bullet point on our graph. So have a friend hold you hair as you let this nauseating situation pass and don’t let it affect your future play or bankroll management. Brett

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