I’m Under The Gun+1 holding 7d-7h with $253,982 chips with blinds and antes at $600/$3,000/$6,000. I have 42 big blinds ($253,982/$6,000 = about 42). The action folds to me. According to The Poker Model, with no action in front of me and over 20 big blinds I’ll raise 2x the big blind with any two cards greater than 7, any ace, suited connectors greater than 6, suited one offs greater than 6 (7s-9s), suited two offs greater than 6 (7s-10s), and pocket pairs. 7-7 is a pocket pair so I will raise 2x the big blind or $12,000.
The action folds to the Small Blind who calls and the Big Blind folds. My raise worked well in that it created isolation and gave me position when the Flop comes. The Small Blind has about 20 big blinds left in his stack after the call and will be first to act on the Flop.
The Flop comes 3s-3d-2c and the Small Blind checks to me. I have an overpair to the board, which usually falls into the mediocre hand category along with top pair, second pair, open-ended straight draws, and flush draws according to The Poker Model. I will check mediocre hands, looking to improve later on and make it to the showdown. But when my opponent has under 20 big blinds in his stack, an overpair improves to a good hand, one in which I’ll look to get all in with right now. This is because my opponent doesn’t have enough chips to just call (even though he might). He should go all-in or fold to my bet. Yes, there are boards like 2s-3s-4s that muddy the rule a bit due to the higher chance of flushes or straights, but on this 3-3-2 board with no flush draws, my overpair qualifies as a good hand. 7-7 will beat many of the hands in in all-in range, so I’ll make a bet and call his all-in.
Also consider the few hands that beat 7-7 here, like any 3, 2-2, or pocket pairs 8-8 through A-A. When approaching the 20 big blind mark, most players will raise all-in with hands like 10-10 through A-A and not call with a 3 pre-Flop. So there are only a few hands, like 8-8, 9-9, or 2-2 that I can expect to be losing to here if my opponent goes all-in over the top of my bet.
I make an averaged-sized continuation bet (between ⅓-⅔ the Pot), which I would make with a bad or good hand here, disguising the strength of my hand in this spot. My opponent goes all-in over the top of my bet and I snap call (call without needing to think) because I’ve already predicted this potential scenario after my bet.
My opponent flips over 4s-4c and I’m in a commanding position to win a large pot (about 88%). The Turn is an Ace. The River is a 5. I lose the Pot to a Straight and am left with a small stack after the hand. As always, I understand that this is all part of poker and move to the next hand, feeling good that my head was in the right place.
In this hand, my opponent told a quick story with his actions. I was able to listen to it and decide if I wanted to buy in or not. I chose to move forward with his pitch but in the end it was all just one big flop.